Fluctuations in Uncertainty
Fluctuations in Uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1257/jep.28.2.153
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Bloom, Nicholas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloom, Nicholas
不确定性是一个模糊的概念。它反映了消费者、经理和政策制定者对可能的未来的不确定性。它也是一个广泛的概念，包括GDP增长等宏观现象路径的不确定性，企业增长率等微观现象，以及战争和气候变化等非经济事件。在这篇文章中，我要回答四个关于不确定性的问题。首先，有关经济不确定性的一些事实和模式是什么？宏观和微观的不确定性似乎都会在衰退中急剧上升，在繁荣时期下降。各国的不确定性也有很大不同--发展中国家的宏观不确定性似乎比发达国家高出约三分之一。其次，为什么商业周期中的不确定性会有所不同？第三，不确定性的波动会影响行为吗？第四，更高的不确定性是否加剧了大衰退，减缓了复苏？这些讨论很大程度上是基于对过去五年不确定性的研究，反映了最近文献的增长。
Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries-developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.