The NAFL Risk Score: A simple scoring model to predict 4-y risk for non-alcoholic fatty liver
The NAFL Risk Score: A simple scoring model to predict 4-y risk for non-alcoholic fatty liver
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NAFL 风险评分：预测非酒精性脂肪肝 4 年风险的简单评分模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.cca.2017.01.021
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Zheng, Ming-Hua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou, Yu-Jie;Zheng, Ji-Na;Zheng, Ming-Hua
背景：虽然非酒精性脂肪肝（NAFL）的几个危险因素已被报道，但很少有临床评分预测其长期发病率。我们开发并验证了一个评分模型，用于预测nafl的4年风险。方法：对8226名最初无nafl的受试者进行为期4年的随访数据进行分析，这些受试者来自温州医疗中心，每年进行体检。这些受试者被随机分为训练组和验证组。采用单变量和多变量logistic回归模型进行模型开发。选定的变量被分配一个整数或半整数的风险评分，与逻辑模型的估计系数成正比。在验证队列中测试风险评分。我们还通过计算受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUROC）来比较其与NAFLD指数的预测性能。结果：NAFL风险评分为0 ~ 18分，包括男女BMI、TG × GGT、ALT/AST、LDL-C/HDL-C和UA。在两个队列中，观察到的NAFL发生率与估计发生率的比较显示出令人满意的准确性。此外，与NAFLD指数（男性AUROC = 0.661，女性0.729）相比，NAFL风险评分具有较好的判别能力（男性AUROC = 0.739，女性0.823）。结论：我们开发并验证了NAFL风险评分，这是一种预测NAFL 4-y风险的新评分模型。NAFL风险评分可能在临床上简单有效，可用于评估NAFL的个体风险(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V.。
Background: Although several risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) have been reported, there are few clinical scores that predict its incidence in the long term. We developed and validate a scoring model for individual prediction of 4-y risk for NAFLMethods: Four-year follow-up data of 8226 initially NAFL-free subjects enrolled for an annual physical examination from Wenzhou Medical Center were analyzed. These subjects are randomly split into the training and the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were employed for model development. The selected variables were assigned an integer or half-integer risk score proportional to the estimated coefficient from the logistic model. Risk scores were tested in a validation cohort. We also compared the predictive performance of with that of the NAFLD Index by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).Results: The NAFL Risk Score was developed as 0 to 18 points comprising of BMI, TG x GGT, ALT/AST, LDL-C/HDL-C and UA in both sexes. Comparison of the observed with the estimated incidence of NAFL at both cohorts showed satisfactory precision. In addition, the NAFL Risk Score showed relatively good discriminative power (AUROC = 0.739 for males, 0.823 for females) compared with the NAFLD Index (AUROC = 0.661 for males, 0.729 for females) in these Chinese subjects.Conclusions: We developed and validated the NAFL Risk Score, a new scoring model to predict 4-y risk for NAFL The NAFL Risk Score may be clinically simple and useful for assessing individual risk for NAFL (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.