Do US federal revenues and expenditures respond asymmetrically to budgetary disequilibria?
Do US federal revenues and expenditures respond asymmetrically to budgetary disequilibria?
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美国联邦收入和支出对预算不平衡的反应是否不对称？
DOI：
10.1080/13504851.2010.498337
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Young
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Young
我们遵循Ewing等人（2006）的观点，在允许非对称调整的误差修正模型（ECM）中研究了美国联邦收入与支出的关系。覆盖1959.3至2007.4的数据拒绝了对称调整。根据是否采用阈值自回归（TAR）或动量阈值自回归（M-TAR）模型，估计的不对称性非常不同。我们认为，没有什么理由更喜欢一个模型，而不是其他和“恶化”或“改善”预算的概念是模型的重要方式。考虑到这一点，不同模型的结果不一定相互矛盾。
We follow Ewing et al. (2006) and examine the US federal revenue–expenditure nexus in an Error-Correction Model (ECM) allowing for asymmetric adjustment. Symmetric adjustment is rejected by data covering 1959.3 to 2007.4. Depending on whether a Threshold Autoregression (TAR) or Momentum Threshold Autoregression (M-TAR) model is employed, the estimated asymmetry is very different. We argue that there is little justification for preferring one model over the other and the concepts of ‘worsening’ or ‘improving’ budgets are model-contingent in important ways. Taking this into account, the results across models need not be contradictory.