Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020
Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020
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DOI：
10.3201/eid2606.200233
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mizumoto, Kenji;Chowell, Gerardo
自2019年12月中国湖北省武汉市发现首例冠状病毒病（COVID-19）以来，疫情已在中国各地产生数万例病例。截至2020年2月28日，中国累计报告死亡人数为2858人。我们估计了武汉COVID-19死亡的时间延迟调整风险。以及中国（不包括武汉），以评估该国疫情的严重程度。我们对武汉死亡风险的估计在疫情中心高达12%，在其他受影响较轻的地区接近1%。死亡风险估计值的升高可能与医疗保健系统的崩溃有关，这表明加强公共卫生干预措施。包括社交距离和行动限制，以控制COVID-19疫情。
Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan. as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and approximate to 1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions. including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.