Connecting global‐ and local‐scale flood risk assessment: a case study of the Rhine River basin flood hazard
Connecting global‐ and local‐scale flood risk assessment: a case study of the Rhine River basin flood hazard
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连接全球和地方规模的洪水风险评估：莱茵河流域洪水灾害案例研究
DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12243
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
K. Takeuchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Gusyev;A. Gädeke;J. Cullmann;J. Magome;A. Sugiura;H. Sawano;K. Takeuchi
这项洪水灾害研究是国际洪水倡议 (IFI) 旗舰项目下将全球和地方洪水风险评估联系起来的第一步。为了模拟河流流量，我们利用 600 角秒网格分块 TOP (BTOP) 模型来表示全球尺度，并为莱茵河流域构建了局部尺度 15 角秒网格 BTOP 模型。两个 BTOP 模型在观测到的每日河流流量方面显示出相似的统计性能，尤其是 1993 年和 1995 年的洪水。对于这两个尺度，我们使用 R 中的 L 矩的 Gumbel 分布从模拟的 BTOP 日流量计算洪峰流量。获得的两种规模的洪峰流量与现有的测站记录相当。对于洪水淹没模拟，将 600 角秒的洪水峰值分解为 15 角秒的尺度，作为洪水淹没模型 (FID) 的输入，所得的 10 年、100 年和 200 年重现期的 15 角秒 FID 地图分别与现有的高概率、中概率和低概率洪水的官方洪水灾害地图具有相似的范围。这些初步结果证明了在全球范围内获得可接受的洪水灾害评估的可能性，并可作为连接全球和地方规模洪水风险评估的起点。
This flood hazard study is the first step towards linking global and local scales of flood risk assessment under the International Flood Initiative (IFI) Flagship Project. To simulate river discharges, we utilised a 600‐arcsec grid block‐wise TOP (BTOP) model to represent the global scale and constructed a local scale 15‐arcsec grid BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. Both BTOP models showed similar statistical performances with observed daily river flows, especially for the 1993 and 1995 floods. For both scales, we calculated flood peak discharges using the Gumbel distribution with L‐moments in R from the simulated BTOP daily discharges. The obtained flood peak discharges of both scales were comparable with available gauging station records. For the flood inundation simulation, the 600‐arcsec flood peaks were disaggregated to the 15‐arcsec scale as input to the Flood Inundation Model (FID), and the resulting 15‐arcsec FID maps of 10‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods had similar extents with the existing official flood hazard maps of high, medium and low probability floods, respectively. These preliminary results demonstrate the possibility of obtaining an acceptable flood hazard assessment on a global scale and serve as a starting point for connecting global and local scales of flood risk assessment.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi;Hapuarachchi, Prasantha;Magome, Jun
通讯作者：
Magome, Jun