Urbanization and sustainability under transitional economies: a synthesis for Asian Russia
Urbanization and sustainability under transitional economies: a synthesis for Asian Russia
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aadbf8
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发表时间：
2018-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
P. Fan;Jiquan Chen;Z. Ouyang;P. Groisman;T. Loboda;G. Gutman;A. Prishchepov;Anna E. Kvashnina;J. Messina;N. Moore;S. Myint;J. Qi
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作者：
P. Fan;Jiquan Chen;Z. Ouyang;P. Groisman;T. Loboda;G. Gutman;A. Prishchepov;Anna E. Kvashnina;J. Messina;N. Moore;S. Myint;J. Qi
亚洲俄罗斯占地约1300万平方公里，2016年人口为3800万。在1990年苏联解体后的社会经济转型背景下，为了综合亚洲俄罗斯城市化和可持续发展的数据和知识，我们利用卫星图像量化了城市动态的时空变化，并探索了城市化和可持续发展之间的相互关系。然后，我们开发了一个可持续发展指数，并辅之以结构方程模型，以全面分析它们的动态。我们选择了叶卡捷琳堡、新西伯利亚、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克、鄂木斯克、伊尔库茨克和哈巴罗夫斯克六个案例城市作为大城市的代表，考察大城市在人口动态、城市化和可持续发展方面是否与该地区同步。我们的主要发现包括以下几个方面。首先，尽管人口减少，但亚洲俄罗斯的经济增长加快了。此外，我们的案例城市显示出人口动态和城市化的总体积极趋势，除了伊尔库茨克以外，所有城市都经历了人口增长，从1990年到2014年都扩大了城市建成区面积，从13%到16%不等。第二，亚洲俄罗斯及其三个联邦区的可持续性和经济发展水平、环境条件和社会发展水平都有所提高。虽然区域可持续性和经济发展在1990年代都经历了严重下滑，但从1990年到2014年，环境条件和社会发展不断改善，特别是1995年后，社会发展有所改善。第三，就城市化与可持续性的关系而言，经济发展似乎是亚洲俄罗斯城市化、社会发展和环境退化的重要驱动因素，经济发展对城市化的影响强于对社会发展和环境退化的影响。
Spanning a vast territory of approximately 13 million km2, Asian Russia was home to 38 million people in 2016. In an effort to synthesize data and knowledge regarding urbanization and sustainable development in Asian Russia in the context of socioeconomic transformation following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1990, we quantified the spatiotemporal changes of urban dynamics using satellite imagery and explored the interrelationships between urbanization and sustainability. We then developed a sustainability index, complemented with structural equation modeling, for a comprehensive analysis of their dynamics. We chose six case cities, i.e., Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Irkutsk, and Khabarovsk, as representatives of large cities to investigate whether large cities are in sync with the region in terms of population dynamics, urbanization, and sustainability. Our major findings include the following. First, Asian Russia experienced enhanced economic growth despite the declining population. Furthermore, our case cities showed a general positive trend for population dynamics and urbanization as all except Irkutsk experienced population increases and all expanded their urban built-up areas, ranging from 13% to 16% from 1990 to 2014. Second, Asian Russia and its three federal districts have improved their sustainability and levels of economic development, environmental conditions, and social development. Although both regional sustainability and economic development experienced a serious dip in the 1990s, environmental conditions and social development continuously improved from 1990 to 2014, with social development particularly improving after 1995. Third, in terms of the relationships between urbanization and sustainability, economic development appeared as an important driver of urbanization, social development, and environmental degradation in Asian Russia, with economic development having a stronger influence on urbanization than on social development or environmental degradation.