Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017.
Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017.
复制标题
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2017.22.46.17-00710
复制
发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tsuzuki S;Lee H;Miura F;Chan YH;Jung SM;Akhmetzhanov AR;Nishiura H
对马达加斯加肺鼠疫的传播潜力和严重程度进行了评估。考虑到报告延迟，复制数估计为 1.73。病死风险估计为 5.5%。对全球马达加斯加输出病例的预期数量进行了估计，2017年8月至10月期间所有估计数均低于1人。
Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.