A breast cancer prediction model incorporating familial and personal risk factors
A breast cancer prediction model incorporating familial and personal risk factors
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.1668
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发表时间：
2004-04-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Cuzick, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tyrer, J;Duffy, SW;Cuzick, J
许多因素决定了女性患乳腺癌的风险。其中一些是遗传性的，与家族史有关，另一些是基于个人因素，如生殖史和病史。虽然许多论文都集中在这些风险因素的子集，没有论文将个人风险因素与详细的遗传分析结合起来。有必要将这些因素联合收割机结合起来，以提供更好的风险总体决定因素。BRCA1和BRCA2基因的发现解释了乳腺癌风险的一些遗传决定因素，但这些基因本身并不能解释乳腺癌的所有家族聚集性。我们已经开发出一个模型，将BRCA基因，一个低风险基因和个人风险因素。对于一个女人来说，她的家族史与贝叶斯定理结合使用，迭代地产生她携带任何易患乳腺癌的基因的可能性，这反过来又影响她患乳腺癌的可能性。根据该妇女的个人历史，进一步细化了这一风险。该模型已被纳入一个计算机程序，提供个性化的风险估计。版权所有（C）2004约翰威利父子有限公司。
Many factors determine a woman's risk of breast cancer. Some of them are genetic and relate to family history, others are based on personal factors such as reproductive history and medical history. While many papers have concentrated on subsets of these risk factors, no papers have incorporated personal risk factors with a detailed genetic analysis. There is a need to combine these factors to provide a better overall determinant of risk. The discovery of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes has explained some of the genetic determinants of breast cancer risk, but these genes alone do not explain all of the familial aggregation of breast cancer. We have developed a model incorporating the BRCA genes, a low penetrance gene and personal risk factors. For an individual woman her family history is used in conjuction with Bayes theorem to iteratively produce the likelihood of her carrying any genes predisposing to breast cancer, which in turn affects her likelihood of developing breast cancer. This risk was further refined based on the woman's personal history. The model has been incorporated into a computer program that gives a personalised risk estimate. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.