What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.
What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.
复制标题
人口衰老对未来临终护理提供的影响有何影响？基于人群的死亡地点预测。
DOI：
10.1177/0269216317734435
复制
发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Higginson IJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bone AE;Gomes B;Etkind SN;Verne J;Murtagh FEM;Evans CJ;Higginson IJ
人口老龄化是未来临终关怀的全球性挑战。鉴于死亡的新趋势，必须研究未来几年死亡人数增加的情况以及对卫生和社会保健的影响。预测2015年至2040年英格兰和威尔士所有医疗机构的死亡人数。使用简单线性模型进行基于人口的趋势分析和预测。医院、护理之家、家庭、临终关怀和“其他”死亡的年龄和性别比例适用于预期未来死亡人数。所有死亡（2004-2014年）来自死亡登记数据，预测死亡（2015-2040年）来自英格兰和威尔士的官方人口预测。预计年死亡人数将从2014年的501，424人（85岁及以上的38.8%）增加到2040年的635，814人（85岁及以上的53.6%）。2004年至2014年期间，家庭和护理院死亡比例增加（18.3%-22.9%和16.7%- 21.2%），而医院死亡下降（57.9%-48.1%）。如果目前的趋势继续下去，到2040年，养老院和家庭的死亡人数将分别增加108.1%和88.6%，养老院将成为最常见的死亡地点。如果护理之家的能力不扩大，医院死亡人数增加，到2023年，医院死亡人数将开始上升。为了维持目前的趋势，到2040年，养老院和社区的临终关怀服务需要翻一番。迫切需要在护理环境中建立基础设施，以支持每年不断上升的死亡人数;否则，医院死亡人数将增加。
Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care. To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales. Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and ‘other’ were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. All deaths (2004–2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015–2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales. Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%–22.9% and 16.7%– 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%–48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023. To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Gomes B;Calanzani N;Gysels M;Hall S;Higginson IJ
通讯作者：
Higginson IJ
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Gomes, Barbara;Calanzani, Natalia;Higginson, Irene J.
通讯作者：
Higginson, Irene J.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Gomes, Barbara;Higginson, Irene J.
通讯作者：
Higginson, Irene J.
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Etkind, S. N.;Bone, A. E.;Murtagh, F. E. M.
通讯作者：
Murtagh, F. E. M.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Hussein, Shereen;Manthorpe, Jill
通讯作者：
Manthorpe, Jill