Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part I. model construction and validation
Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part I. model construction and validation
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-002-0143-1
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发表时间：
2002-12-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Dessai, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dessai, S
全球气候变化将对人类健康产生直接影响，包括热应激和热浪造成的死亡率增加。热应力的一个数学统计模型构造的里斯本市使用的观测期1980-1998年的6月至8月。该模型根据观察到的死亡与预期死亡之间的差异，对最高温度与过热相关死亡之间的总剂量-反应关系进行回归。通过相关分析和残差分析对模型进行了验证。1980年至1998年期间，与高温有关的年平均死亡率为每10万人5.4至6人，这取决于用于计算预期死亡的方法。这两种验证方法都表明，与观察到的记录相比，该模型在模拟与热有关的死亡方面具有中等至高度的准确性。
Global climate change will have direct impacts on human health, including increased mortality due to heat stress and heat waves. An empirical-statistical model for heat stress is constructed for the city of Lisbon using the June-August months of the observational period 1980-1998. The model uses the regression of an aggregate dose-response relationship between maximum temperature and excess heat-related deaths, based on the difference between observed and expected deaths. The model is validated by correlation and residual analysis. The mean annual heat-related mortality for the period 1980-1998 was between 5.4 and 6 deaths per 100,000 depending on the method used to calculate expected deaths. Both validation methods show that the model has a moderate to high accuracy in modelling heat-related deaths compared to the observed record.