What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change
What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0153296
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发表时间：
2016-04-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Guha-Sapir, Debarati
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Daoud, Adel;Hallerod, Bjorn;Guha-Sapir, Debarati
本文探讨了自然灾害和治理不善（治理质量）与67个中低收入国家儿童绝对贫困的相关程度。这些数据代表了世界上约28亿人口。制度主义者倾向于认为，包括贫困在内的许多社会弊病都源于脆弱或低效的制度。然而，我们的研究结果表明，虽然政府质量的提高往往与贫困程度的降低有关，但自然灾害对儿童贫困的负面影响与一个国家的机构效率无关。越来越多的灾害受害者（死亡和受灾）与儿童贫困率的上升有关。当一个孩子所在国家的平均年灾害人数以log-10的比例增加1时，该孩子处于绝对贫困状态的估计比值比增加约5.7倍[95%CI：1.7至18.7]。更好的治理与更少的儿童贫困相关，但它不会改变儿童贫困与自然灾害之间的相关性。结果基于分层回归模型，该模型将方差分为三个部分：儿童，家庭和国家。这些模型是跨部门的，并以21世纪初收集的人口健康调查和多指标类集调查的观察数据为基础。可持续发展目标是遏制气候变化的原则宣言，但它们缺乏关于全球社会应如何分担这种变化负担的明确计划。根据我们的研究结果，我们建议发展机构应考虑到这一点，并制定更公平的全球政策，以保护最脆弱的群体，特别是儿童。
The paper explores the degree to which exposure to natural disasters and poor governance (quality of governance) is associated with absolute child poverty in sixty-seven middle-and low-income countries. The data is representative for about 2.8 billion of the world's population. Institutionalist tend to argue that many of society's ills, including poverty, derive from fragile or inefficient institutions. However, our findings show that although increasing quality of government tends to be associated with less poverty, the negative effects of natural disasters on child poverty are independent of a country's institutional efficiency. Increasing disaster victims (killed and affected) is associated with higher rates of child poverty. A child's estimated odds ratio to be in a state of absolute poverty increases by about a factor of 5.7 [95% CI: 1.7 to 18.7] when the average yearly toll of disasters in the child's country increases by one on a log-10 scale. Better governance correlates with less child poverty, but it does not modify the correlation between child poverty and natural disasters. The results are based on hierarchical regression models that partition the variance into three parts: child, household, and country. The models were cross-sectional and based on observational data from the Demographic Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which were collected at the beginning of the twenty-first millennium. The Sustainable Development Goals are a principle declaration to halt climate change, but they lack a clear plan on how the burden of this change should be shared by the global community. Based on our results, we suggest that the development agencies should take this into account and to articulate more equitable global policies to protect the most vulnerable, specifically children.