Intensity and spatial heterogeneity of design rainstorm under nonstationarity and stationarity hypothesis across mainland China
Intensity and spatial heterogeneity of design rainstorm under nonstationarity and stationarity hypothesis across mainland China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-019-02937-2
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发表时间：
2019-07
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Zhaoyang Zeng;Chengguang Lai;Zhaoli Wang;Xiaohong Chen;Zhenxing Zhang;Xiangju Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhaoyang Zeng;Chengguang Lai;Zhaoli Wang;Xiaohong Chen;Zhenxing Zhang;Xiangju Cheng
了解设计暴雨的趋势特征和极端降水的空间异质性，对减少罕见极端降水灾害具有重要意义。利用1961 - 2013年中国大陆高分辨率（0.5° × 0.5°）逐日降水格点资料，采用30年移动窗方法（30 YM）分析了设计暴雨的历史变化趋势和空间异质性。比较了30年一遇和30年一遇增窗法（30 YBI）对设计暴雨定量化的差异。结果表明，30年来中国大陆设计暴雨强度有明显的增加趋势，但在空间上没有一致的变化趋势。华南、华东、东北地区主要呈上升趋势，西南、华北地区呈下降趋势。如果在全国尺度上采用非平稳性假设，设计暴雨的空间异质性大大增强。空间异质性主要表现为东南、华北、东北和西北地区的增加趋势，西南和西部地区的减少趋势，表明空间异质性存在明显的区域差异。对于中国大陆的大部分地区，特别是东南、东北和西部地区，使用最新的降水子序列来量化设计暴雨，可以减弱潜在的非平稳性，并保证这些地区的基础设施的安全设计降雨增加。
Understanding the trend characteristics of design rainstorm and spatial heterogeneity of extreme precipitation is of great importance to reduce disasters induced by rare extreme precipitation. Using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded data set of precipitation across mainland China from 1961 to 2013, this study investigated the historical changing trend and spatial heterogeneity of design rainstorm using the 30-year moving window method (30YM). Differences in the quantification of the design rainstorm were compared for the use of the 30YM and the 30-year-based increasing window method (30YBI). The results show that a significant increasing intensity but no spatially uniform trend of design rainstorm can be observed across mainland China based on the 30YM analysis. The south, east, and northeast China mainly showed an increasing trend, but the southwest and north China presented a decreasing trend. The spatial heterogeneity of the design rainstorm was greatly enhanced if the nonstationarity assumption was adopted on the national scale. The heterogeneity showed an increasing trend mainly in southeast, north, northeast, and northwest China, and a decreasing trend in southwest and west China, indicating significant regional variation in spatial heterogeneity. For most areas of mainland China, especially for southeastern, northeastern, and western China, use of the most recent precipitation sub-series to quantify the design rainstorm may weaken the potential nonstationarity and guarantee the safety of infrastructure in these areas where design rainfall increases.