Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model
Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model
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DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-17-0098.1
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
S. Yeager;G. Danabasoglu;N. Rosenbloom;W. G. Strand;S. Bates;G. Meehl;A. Karspeck;K. Lindsay;
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Yeager;G. Danabasoglu;N. Rosenbloom;W. G. Strand;S. Bates;G. Meehl;A. Karspeck;K. Lindsay;
近期气候预测的目标是提前几年到十年或更长时间改善我们对影响重大的气候变化的预见性，这些变化通常可归因于内部和外部强迫变化的结合。使用过去的气候状态的观测初始化的预测进行了测试，通过比较他们的能力，再现过去的气候演变与未初始化的模拟中，相同的辐射强迫。最近使用社区地球系统模式（CESM）完成了一套新的十年预测（DP）模拟，现在可供社区使用。这个新的大集合（LE）集（CESM-DPLE）由1954年至2015年期间每年11月1日初始化后向前集成10年的历史模拟组成。CESM-DPLE代表了被广泛研究的CESM大型包体（CESM-LE）的“初始化”对应物;两个模拟集都有40个成员的系综，它们使用相同的模型代码和辐射强迫。将CESM-DPLE与CESM-LE进行比较，突出了初始化对预测技能的影响，并表明DP技能的稳健评估和解释可能需要比当前协议推荐的更大的集合。CESM-DPLE表现出显着的和潜在的有用的预测技能，为广泛的领域，地区和时间尺度，它显示了广泛的改进，简单的基准预测，以及在以前的初始化系统，提交给第5阶段的耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 5）。新的DP系统提供了新的能力，这将是一个广泛的社会追求地球系统预测研究的兴趣。
The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.