Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States
Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.002
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Pitkin, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dalton, Michael;O'Neill, Brian;Pitkin, John
未来几十年美国家庭年龄构成的变化可能会影响能源使用和二氧化碳（CO2）排放，这是最重要的温室气体。本文将人口年龄结构纳入到一个多朝代异质家庭的能源经济增长模型中。该模型用于估计和比较人口老龄化和技术变革对美国能源使用和CO排放基线路径的影响。结果表明，在低人口情景下，人口老龄化减少了近40%的长期排放，在某些情况下，老龄化对排放的影响可能与技术变革的影响一样大，甚至更大。这些结果是根据经济增长模型中使用的标准假设和函数形式得出的。该模型还假设了一个封闭的经济，替代弹性是固定的，并且在不同年龄组之间是相同的，劳动力供给模式因年龄组而异，但随着时间的推移是固定的。(c)2006 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the most important greenhouse gas. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use, and CO, emissions. Results show that population aging reduces longterm emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than, effects of technical change in some cases. These results are derived under standard assumptions and functional forms that are used in economic growth models. The model also assumes a closed economy, substitution elasticities that are fixed, and identical across age groups, and patterns of labor supply that vary by age group, but are fixed over time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.