Modeling the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide through reforestation: effect of time delay
Modeling the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide through reforestation: effect of time delay
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DOI：
10.1007/s40808-015-0028-z
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Venturino, Ezio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Misra, A. K.;Verma, Maitri;Venturino, Ezio
二氧化碳（CO2）是造成全球变暖威胁的主要温室气体。森林生物量在吸收大气中的二氧化碳方面发挥着重要作用，但由于人类活动的影响，全球森林生物量正在以惊人的速度下降。在这种情况下，重新造林对减少大气中的二氧化碳负担至关重要。在本文中，我们提出了一个非线性数学模型来研究造林的影响，以及森林数据的测量和实施造林努力控制大气中CO2浓度之间的延迟。模型分析表明，大气中的CO2浓度降低，由于重新造林，但森林生物量的测量和实施重新造林努力之间的较长的延迟对系统的动态不稳定的影响。这个时间延迟的临界值被解析地发现。以时延为分岔参数进行霍普夫分岔分析。讨论了由Hopf分支产生的分支周期解的稳定性和方向。
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prime greenhouse gas responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest biomass plays an important role in sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere but the global forest biomass is declining with an alarming rate due to human activities. In this scenario, reforestation is crucial to reduce the atmospheric burden of CO2. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of reforestation as well as the delay involved in between the measurement of forest data and implementation of reforestation efforts on the control of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Model analysis shows that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 decreases due to reforestation but a longer delay in between measurement of forest biomass and implementation of reforestation efforts has destabilizing effect on the dynamics of the system. The critical value of this time delay is found analytically. The Hopf-bifurcation analysis is performed by taking time delay as bifurcation parameter. The stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solutions arising through Hopf-bifurcations are also discussed.