Aerosol effects on clouds are concealed by natural cloud heterogeneity and satellite retrieval errors.
Aerosol effects on clouds are concealed by natural cloud heterogeneity and satellite retrieval errors.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-34948-5
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发表时间：
2022-11-30
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Kokkola, Harri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arola, Antti;Lipponen, Antti;Kolmonen, Pekka;Virtanen, Timo H.;Bellouin, Nicolas;Grosvenor, Daniel P.;Gryspeerdt, Edward;Quaas, Johannes;Kokkola, Harri
云介导的气溶胶强迫中的一个主要不确定性来源是云液态水路径(LWP)对气溶胶-云相互作用的调节程度，这一点很难受到观测的约束。最近的许多基于卫星的研究已经观察到LWP作为主要行为的云滴数密度(CDNC)的函数而减小。估计LWP对CDNC变化的响应是一项复杂的任务，因为需要隔离各种混杂因素。然而，一个重要的方面没有得到充分的考虑：自然空间变异性和卫星反演云光学厚度和云有效半径的误差对CDNC和LWP估计的传播。在这里，我们使用卫星和模拟测量来证明，由于这种传播，即使是正的LWP调整也很可能被误解为负的。因此，这种偏向效应导致了对气溶胶-云-气候冷却的低估，必须在今后的研究中适当考虑。作者指出，以前的分析估计云水含量随着云滴数量的增加而减少，但由于卫星数据的可变性，可能会产生负偏差，从而低估了气溶胶-云-气候冷却。
One major source of uncertainty in the cloud-mediated aerosol forcing arises from the magnitude of the cloud liquid water path (LWP) adjustment to aerosol-cloud interactions, which is poorly constrained by observations. Many of the recent satellite-based studies have observed a decreasing LWP as a function of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) as the dominating behavior. Estimating the LWP response to the CDNC changes is a complex task since various confounding factors need to be isolated. However, an important aspect has not been sufficiently considered: the propagation of natural spatial variability and errors in satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth and cloud effective radius to estimates of CDNC and LWP. Here we use satellite and simulated measurements to demonstrate that, because of this propagation, even a positive LWP adjustment is likely to be misinterpreted as negative. This biasing effect therefore leads to an underestimate of the aerosol-cloud-climate cooling and must be properly considered in future studies. The authors showed that previous analyses which have estimated that the cloud water content decreases with increasing number of cloud droplets may have a negative bias due to variability in satellite data, thus underestimating aerosol-cloud-climate cooling.
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