Winning Is Not Everything: A contextual analysis of hockey face-offs
Winning Is Not Everything: A contextual analysis of hockey face-offs
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胜利并不代表一切：曲棍球对抗的背景分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Mehrsan Javan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nick Czuzoj;David Yu;C. Boucher;L. Bornn;Mehrsan Javan
本文采用了一种不同的方法来评估冰球比赛中的对峙。几十年来，胜率实际上一直是衡量成功对决对手的标准，而不是看胜率，而是关注对决之后的比赛事件，以及方向性、干净的胜利和球员的惯用手如何在创造价值方面发挥重要作用。这将证明并不是所有的对决胜利都是平等的：一些球员通过干净的胜利和将冰球引导到冰上的高价值区域来持续地创造对峙后的价值。因此，我们提出了一个预期事件对决模型以及一个高于预期的胜利模型，该模型考虑了在不同情况下通过将冰球瞄准冰上特定区域而增加的价值，以及这对后续比赛事件的影响。
This paper takes a different approach to evaluating face-offs in ice hockey. Instead of looking at win percentages, the de facto measure of successful face-off takers for decades, focuses on the game events following the face-off and how directionality, clean wins, and player handedness play a significant role in creating value. This will demonstrate how not all face-off wins are made equal: some players consistently create post-face-off value through clean wins and by directing the puck to high-value areas of the ice. As a result, we propose an expected events face-off model as well as a wins above expected model that take into account the value added on a face-off by targeting the puck to specific areas on the ice in various contexts, as well as the impact this has on subsequent game events.