Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift
Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl060130
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发表时间：
2014-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wenjun Zhang;F. Jin;A. Turner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenjun Zhang;F. Jin;A. Turner
近二十年来，中国南部在秋季遭遇了更为频繁的干旱，引发了前所未有的水危机。我们发现，秋季干旱的加剧在很大程度上归因于ENSO体制的转变。与传统的东太平洋(EP)厄尔尼诺事件相比，中太平洋(CP)厄尔尼诺事件发生的频率更高，最大海温异常位于日期线附近。中国南部多在厄尔尼诺年秋季出现降水盈馀，而厄尔尼诺环流易出现降水逆差。自1990年代初以来，由于CP厄尔尼诺现象更加频繁，而EP厄尔尼诺现象变得不那么常见，秋季干旱的频率显著增加。这意味着，在全球变暖的情况下，中国南部的降水短缺会加剧，在这个世界里，CP厄尔尼诺事件可能会变得更加常见。
In the two most recent decades, more frequent drought struck southern China during autumn, causing an unprecedented water crisis. We found that the increasing autumn drought is largely attributed to an ENSO regime shift. Compared to traditional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño events have occurred more frequently, with maximum sea surface temperature anomalies located near the dateline. Southern China usually experiences precipitation surplus during the autumn of EP El Niño years, while the CP El Niño tends to produce precipitation deficits. Since the CP El Niño has occurred more frequently while EP El Niño has become less common after the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of autumn drought. This has implications for increasing precipitation shortages over southern China in a warming world, in which CP El Niño events have been suggested to become more common.