AERIAL MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES OF CONFINED MULE DEER IN PINYON-JUNIPER WOODLAND
AERIAL MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES OF CONFINED MULE DEER IN PINYON-JUNIPER WOODLAND
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DOI：
10.2307/3801626
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发表时间：
1987-01-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
GARROTT, RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BARTMANN, RM;WHITE, GC;GARROTT, RA
在458 -70公顷的牧场上，从直升机上收集了已知数量的有标记的（无线电项圈）和相当已知数量的无标记的骡鹿（Odocoileus hemionus），用于计算114个林肯-彼得森估计的种群规模。本文探讨了三种结合林肯-彼得森估计的方法：简单算术平均值、中位数和联合超几何最大似然。与个别估计相比，所有3个估计产生的置信区间更窄，并且增加了覆盖真实总体值的置信区间的百分比。中位数对异常值最不敏感，但联合超几何最大似然提供.apprx。置信区间小40%。所有3个估计的置信区间（64-73%）至少部分重叠于真实总体大小的范围，其百分比大致相同。对于所有3个估计量，应该标记一小部分人口的大比例（约45%），以获得更可靠的估计和最大的置信区间覆盖。然而，平均人口估计仍然很有可能偏低。
Counts from a helicopter of known numbers of marked (radio-collared) and reasonably well known numbers of unmarked mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in 4 58-70 ha pastures were used to calculate 114 Lincoln-Petersen estimates of population size. Three approaches to combine Lincoln-Petersen estimates were explored: simple arithmetic mean, median, and joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood. Compared to individual estimates, all 3 produced narrower confidence intervals and increased the percentage of confidence intervals that covered true population values. The median was least sensitive to outliers, but the joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood provided .apprx. 40% smaller confidence intervals. About the same percentage of confidence intervals for all 3 estimators (64-73%) overlapped at least part of the ranges of true population size. For all 3 estimators, a large proportion (> 45%) of a small population should be marked to obtain more reliable estimates and greatest confidence interval coverage. However, there is still high probability that mean population estimates will be low.