METHODS OF INFERENCE FOR ESTIMATES OF ABSOLUTE RISK DERIVED FROM POPULATION-BASED CASE-CONTROL STUDIES
METHODS OF INFERENCE FOR ESTIMATES OF ABSOLUTE RISK DERIVED FROM POPULATION-BASED CASE-CONTROL STUDIES
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DOI：
10.2307/2533324
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发表时间：
1995-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
GAIL, MH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BENICHOU, J;GAIL, MH
绝对风险是在给定年龄和风险因素的情况下，在指定时间间隔内发生特定疾病的可能性。Gall等人（1989，Journal of the National Cancer Institute 81，1879-1888）通过结合病例对照数据的相对风险估计值和队列数据的复合发病率估计值，从基于人群的病例对照数据中获得点估计值。他们还获得了方差估计值，但他们在估计相对风险时只考虑了变异性。在本文中，我们提出的方差估计，考虑到变异性的所有组成部分，即相对风险估计和基线发病率估计的方差，以及两者之间的协方差，后者是通过使用隐式delta方法参数获得的（Benichou和Gall，1989年，美国统计学家43，41-44）。仿真证明了这种方差估计以及相应的置信区间的有效性。这些方法被应用到一个以人群为基础的乳腺癌病例对照研究。
The absolute risk is the probability of developing a given disease over a specified time interval given age and risk factors. Gall, et al. (1989, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 81, 1879-1888) obtained point estimates from population-based case control data by combining relative risk estimates from the case control data and composite incidence estimates from the cohort data. They also obtained variance estimates, but they only took into account the variability in estimating relative risks. In this paper, we present variance estimates that take into account all components of variability, namely the variance of relative risk estimates and of baseline incidence estimates, as well as the covariance between the two, the latter term being obtained by using implicit delta method arguments (Benichou and Gall, 1989, The American Statistician 43, 41-44). Simulations demonstrate the validity of such variance estimates as well as of corresponding confidence intervals. These methods are applied to a population-based case control study of breast cancer.