COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis.
COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138778
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhijie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qi, Hongchao;Xiao, Shuang;Zhang, Zhijie
COVID-19已成为一种流行病。气象因素对COVID-19传播和扩散的影响值得关注。本研究旨在研究中国30个省份（湖北省从2019年12月1日至2020年2月11日，其他省份从2020年1月20日至2020年2月11日）的日平均温度（AT）和相对湿度（ARH）与COVID-19病例日计数的关系。在研究期间，我们拟合了一个广义加性模型（GAM），以量化气象变量与COVID-19每日病例之间的省特异性关联。在模型中，14天的指数移动平均值（EMA）的AT和ARH，以及它们的交互作用，时间趋势和求医行为进行了调整。它们的空间分布是可视化的。在湖北省，AT和ARH与COVID-19呈显著负相关，两者之间存在显著交互作用（0.04，95%置信区间：0.004-0.07）。当ARH在67%至85.5%的范围内时，AT每增加1°C，每日确诊病例就会减少36%至57%。当气温在5.04°C至8.2°C之间时，ARH每增加1%，每日确诊病例就会减少11%至22%。然而，这些关联在中国大陆并不一致。
COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily counts of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.