Characterizing spatial and chronological target selection of serial offenders
Characterizing spatial and chronological target selection of serial offenders
复制标题
表征连环犯罪者的空间和时间目标选择
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sean Bair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Hering;Sean Bair
使用来自美国两个城市的31个独特的犯罪系列，调查了个体犯罪决策者遵循的空间模式。城市内不同地点发生特定类型犯罪的可能性不同，这是通过使用基于每种类型的所有犯罪的核密度估计来解释的。由于核密度估计受带宽的影响较大，因此采用一种客观的方法来选择估计。然后，将每种犯罪类型的核密度估计合并到一个非齐次K函数中，该函数可以识别每个犯罪系列在不同空间尺度上的显著空间聚集性和/或一致性。我们发现，抢劫系列比盗窃系列更有可能表现出一致性，而入室盗窃系列往往表现出强烈的集群性。此外，研究发现，一系列新增犯罪的顺序遵循一种有趣的模式，这种模式并不总是支持罪犯作为觅食者的理论，即罪犯首先聚集犯罪，然后逐渐分散犯罪。一半的抢劫系列呈现出一种空间分布，随着系列中增加越来越多的事件，开始分散，并发展成集群，这表明他们在其他地方犯罪后往往会回到更早的犯罪地点。
Using 31 unique crime series from two US cities, the spatial pattern that individual criminal decision makers follow is investigated. Locations within a city vary in the likelihood for crimes of a given type to occur, and this is accounted for by using kernel density estimation based on all crimes of each type. Kernel density estimation is highly influenced by the bandwidth, so an objective approach is used to select the estimate. Then, the kernel density estimate for each type of crime is incorporated in an inhomogeneous K‐function that can identify significant spatial clustering and/or uniformity at various spatial scales for each crime series. We find that robbery series are more likely to exhibit uniformity than burglary series, which tend to show strong clustering. In addition, the order in which new crimes are added to a series is found to follow an interesting pattern that does not always support the theory of offender as forager in which criminals first cluster crimes and then gradually disperse them. Half of the robbery series exhibit a spatial distribution that begins dispersed and develops clusters as increasingly more events are added to the series, indicating that they often return to locations of earlier crimes after having committed crimes elsewhere.