ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURE AND DEATH RATES
ENVIRONMENT TEMPERATURE AND DEATH RATES
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DOI：
10.1093/ageing/7.4.210
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发表时间：
1978-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
MORTON J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BULL G M;MORTON J
对英国英格兰和威尔士每月死亡记录的分析表明，除癌症外，大多数疾病的死亡率与外部温度密切相关。对英格兰和伊尔斯以及美国纽约每日死亡人数的分析表明，温度与心肌梗塞、中风和肺炎死亡人数之间存在以下关系。在-10和+20 °之间。随着温度的升高，死亡人数几乎呈线性下降。20度以上。当温度上升到-10 ℃以下时，C死亡急剧上升。温度福尔斯下降时，C急剧上升。这些死亡与气温下降的联系福尔斯。这些死亡与温度的关联在老年人中比在年轻人中强得多。对英格兰和威尔士每日死于心肌梗死、中风和肺炎的人数进行的详细分析表明，短期（1-2天）温度变化对死亡率的影响很小，但中期（7-10天）和长期（3周或更长时间）温度变化与死亡率的显著变化相关。这三种疾病在温度变化与死亡率变化之间的时间关系上有所不同。在所有3种情况下，体温变化和死亡之间都有一个间隔;在心肌梗死的情况下最短（死亡前1-2天），肺炎的情况下最长（死亡前约1周），中风的情况下居中（死亡前约3-4天）。在低温下，死亡率随着温度变化持续时间的增加而增加，而在高温（但低于+20 ℃）下，死亡率随着温度变化持续时间的增加而增加。C）死亡率随着温度变化时间的延长而降低。温度变化与多种疾病造成的死亡之间可能存在因果关系。这个链条的近端环节可能是老年人体温自主控制的失败，导致体温变化和导致死亡的体液变化。把注意力集中在体温过低上是不合适的，因为温度和死亡之间的关系在所有温度下都可以看到。
Analysis of recorded monthly deaths in England and Wales, UK, shows a close association of death rates with external temperature in most diseases other than the cancers. Analysis of daily deaths in England and Eales and in New York, USA, shows the following relationships between temperature and deaths from myocardial infarction, strokes and pneumonia. Between -10 and +20.degree. C (minimum temperature) there is a nearly linear fall in deaths as the temperature rises. Above 20.degree. C deaths rise steeply as the temperature rises and below -10.degree. C rise steeply as temperature falls. These associations of deaths with temperature falls. These associations of deaths with temperature are much stronger in the elderly than in younger subjects. Detailed analysis of the daily deaths in England and Wales from myocardial infarction, strokes and pneumonia show that short-term (1-2 days) temperature changes have little effect on death rates but medium-term (7-10 days) and longer-term (3 or more wk) changes are associated with very significant changes in death rates. The 3 diseases vary in the time relations between temperature change and change in death rates. In all 3 there is an interval between the change in temperature and death; this is shortest in the case of myocardial infarction (1-2 days before death), longest in the case of pneumonia (about 1 wk before death) and intermediate in the case of strokes (about 3-4 days before death). At low temperatures death rates increase as the duration of temperature change increases, while at high temperatures (but below +20.degree. C) death rates decrease as the period of temperature change is longer. There is probably a causal relationship between temperature change and deaths from a wide variety of diseases. A proximal link in the chain is probably a failure of autonomic control of body temperature in the elderly leading to a change in body temperature and some humoral change which leads to death. It is not appropriate to concentrate on hypothermia as the relationship between temperature and death is seen at all temperatures.