Development of early warning system for tsunamis accompanied by collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia
Development of early warning system for tsunamis accompanied by collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia
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开发伴随印度尼西亚阿纳克喀拉喀托火山崩塌的海啸预警系统
DOI：
10.3389/feart.2023.1213493
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
I. Mulia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rinda Nita Ratnasari;Y. Tanioka;Yusuke Yamanaka;I. Mulia
目前的海啸预警系统专门针对地震引起的海啸，但迅速评估火山爆发和/或火山区崩塌引起的海啸仍然是一个挑战。在这项研究中，我们将一个数值模型应用于2018年Anak Krakatau海啸事件，该事件是由部门崩溃产生的，研究了该模型的海啸预测技巧，并开发了一种基于预先计算的数据库的实时预测方法，用于未来的海啸伴随着Anak Krakatau的这种喷发。该数据库存储的时空变化的水面水平和通量，这是模拟各种崩溃的情况下，在有限的地区附近的潜在来源。这些地区还包括实际上位于震源区周围无人居住岛屿上的观测站的位置。在实际的火山海啸事件中，预计在观测站会观测到海啸。对于实时海啸预报，最合适的方案，以重现观测波形在数据库中快速搜索。根据所确定的方案的预先计算的结果进一步提供作为输入的快速海啸传播模拟。因此，有效的实时预报可以进行到人口稠密的沿海地区位于相当远的距离，从源，如爪哇和苏门答腊岛的海岸。预测性能进行了检查，通过应用该方法为三个假设的崩溃的情况下，假设不同的滑动方向。我们证明，海啸沿着海岸被成功地预测。此外，我们表明，一个预先计算的数据库和观测站附近的源区域的存在相结合，能够产生适当的海啸预报的沿海地区，即使在火山事件。
Present tsunami warning systems have been specialized for earthquake-generated tsunamis, but rapidly evaluating the tsunamis caused by volcanic eruptions and/or volcanic sector collapses remains a challenge. In this study, we applied a numerical model to the 2018 Anak Krakatau tsunami event, which was generated by the sector collapse, investigated a tsunami prediction skill by the model, and developed a real-time forecasting method based on a pre-computed database for future tsunamis accompanied by such eruption of Anak Krakatau. The database stores spatiotemporal changes in water surface level and flux, which are simulated under various collapse scenarios, for confined areas in the vicinity of potential source. The areas also cover the locations of observation stations that are virtually placed on uninhabited island surrounding the source area. During an actual volcanic tsunami event, a tsunami is expected to be observed at the observation stations. For real-time tsunami forecasting, the most suitable scenarios to reproduce the observed waveforms are searched quickly in the database. The precomputed results under the identified scenarios are further provided as input for rapid tsunami propagation simulation. Therefore, an effective real-time forecasting can be conducted to densely populated coastal areas located at a considerable distance from the source, such as the coasts of Java and Sumatra. The forecasting performance was examined by applying the method for three hypothetical collapse scenarios assuming different sliding directions. We demonstrated that the tsunamis along the coasts were successfully forecasted. Moreover, we showed that the combination of a pre-computed database and the existence of observation stations near the source area was able to produce appropriate tsunami forecasting for the coastal area even in a volcanic event.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Grilli, Stephan T.;Tappin, David R.;Muin, Muslim
通讯作者：
Muin, Muslim