Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.
Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.03.046
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发表时间：
2016-05
期刊：
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Rocklöv J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu-Helmersson J;Quam M;Wilder-Smith A;Stenlund H;Ebi K;Massad E;Rocklöv J
气温升高可能会增加媒介传播疾病在温带地区的地理传播。虽然登革热是一种热带蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，但2012年在葡萄牙马德拉发生了登革热疫情；这是欧洲自20世纪20年代以来的第一次。这次疫情强调了由于气候变化，登革热在欧洲再次出现的可能性。我们根据历史和预测温度（1901-2099），利用媒介容量（VC）提出登革热流行潜力的估计。VC表示病媒在人间传播疾病的能力。我们计算了欧洲的温度相关VC，突出显示了10个欧洲城市和3个非欧洲参考城市。与热带地区相比，欧洲表现出明显的季节性和地理异质性。夏季的VC虽然很低，但目前足以使南欧爆发登革热疫情——如果有足够的病媒种群（伊蚊和伊蚊）。埃及伊蚊和伊蚊。白纹伊蚊（Albopictus）有活性，并引入病毒。在各种气候变化情景下，登革热流行潜力的季节高峰和时间窗口在21世纪增加。我们的研究绘制了欧洲登革热流行潜力图，并确定了1901年至2099年主要城市最有利于登革热传播的季节性时间窗口。我们的研究结果表明，除了病媒控制之外，减少温室气体排放至关重要地降低了登革热未来在欧洲流行的可能性。过去和现在对登革热流行的评估表明，温带气候的登革热流行潜力具有强烈的季节性特征。目前的登革热强度可能导致夏季登革热在南欧由伊蚊媒介（如存在）引起流行。时空VC变化的程度取决于矢量特征和预估的温室气体排放情景。随着气候变化，未来登革热会加剧：向北转移并延长适合登革热流行的季节。到21世纪末，如果伊蚊病媒得以确立，季节性登革热疫情可能会在欧洲更多地区出现。实现《巴黎协定》的减排承诺可以减缓登革热对欧洲日益严重的威胁。全球化和气候变化可增加病媒传播疾病的地域传播。其中，登革热是一种蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，每年导致多达3.9亿人感染。本研究根据气候条件评估了欧洲登革热暴发的可能性。目前，对登革热暴发的适宜性（1901-2099年）估计正在从南欧向北扩大，并在夏季前后季节性延长至8个月；然而，预估的程度、强度和持续时间部分取决于温室气体排放。我们的结论是，限制排放从而减缓气候变化可以大大降低21世纪欧洲登革热传播事件的可能性。
Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. Past and present assessments of VC indicate strong seasonal patterns in temperate climates' dengue epidemic potential. Current VC intensity could permit summer dengue epidemics in Southern Europe driven by either Aedes vector, where present. Extent of spatial and temporal VC changes depend on vector characteristics and projected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. With climate change, future VC intensifies: shifting northward and prolonging the season suitable for dengue epidemics. By the 21st century's end, seasonal dengue outbreaks could emerge in much more of Europe if Aedes vectors were established. Achieving the Paris Agreement's emission reduction commitments could decelerate the increasing threat of dengue to Europe. Globalization and climate change can increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases. Among those, dengue, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, causes up to 390 million human infections annually. This study evaluates potential for dengue outbreaks in Europe based on climate conditions. Estimated suitability (1901–2099) for dengue outbreaks is expanding presently from Southern Europe northward and lengthening seasonally up to eight months around the summer; however, the projected extent, intensity and duration depend partially on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that limiting emissions thereby mitigating climate change could substantially reduce the likelihood of dengue transmission events in Europe during the 21st century.