World trade as the adjustment mechanism of agriculture to climate change
World trade as the adjustment mechanism of agriculture to climate change
复制标题
世界贸易作为农业应对气候变化的调节机制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Duchin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Juliá;F. Duchin
本文评估了贸易作为一种经济调节机制对气候变化对农业的影响的作用。这项研究使用了一个能够反映比较优势变化的世界经济模型；该模型被用来检验以下假设：第一，满足全球农业需求不会受到损害，第二，普遍获得粮食的机会不会减少。这些假设针对气候变化的三种替代情景进行了检验；在每一种情景下，各区域通过改变农业专用土地面积和农产品生产结构来适应气候假设，这是农业适应的两个主要机制。我们发现，在物质条件发生变化的情况下，贸易使满足世界对农产品的需求成为可能。然而，在世界一些地区，获得粮食的机会减少了。还出现了其他模式，表明依赖贸易作为调整农业以适应未来可能发生的气候变化的机制值得关注的领域。
This paper evaluates the role of trade as a mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second, general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate.