STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE STAGES OF HIV INFECTION USING A MARKOV MODEL
STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF THE STAGES OF HIV INFECTION USING A MARKOV MODEL
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780080708
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发表时间：
1989-07-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
HETHCOTE, HW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LONGINI, IM;CLARK, WS;HETHCOTE, HW
我们使用一个阶段马尔可夫模型估计的分布和平均长度的获得性免疫缺陷综合征（艾滋病）从一个队列的603人免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）感染者已被跟踪通过不同阶段的感染的潜伏期。该模型将感染期划分为四个进展阶段：（1）感染但抗体阴性;（2）抗体阳性但无症状;（3）AIDS前症状和/或异常血液学指标;和（4）临床AIDS。我们还模拟了第五个阶段：艾滋病死亡。感染各阶段的估计平均（中位）等待时间为第1阶段2.2（1.5）个月;第2阶段52.6（36.5）个月;第3阶段62.9（43.6）个月;第4阶段23.6（16.3）个月。我们估计平均艾滋病潜伏期（从感染到发展为临床艾滋病）为9.8年，95%置信区间为[8.4，11.2]年。本文还考虑了艾滋病潜伏期的估计密度函数和估计的生存函数的个人在每个阶段的感染。这项工作是迄今为止对艾滋病毒感染自然史最完整的统计描述之一。
We use a staged Markov model to estimate the distribution and mean length of the incubation period for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) from a cohort of 603 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected individuals who have been followed through various stages of infection. The model partitions the infected period into four progressive stages: (1) infected but antibody-negative; (2) antibody-positive but asymptomatic; (3) pre-AIDS symptoms and/or abnormal hematologic indicator; and (4) clinical AIDS. We also model a fifth stage: death due to AIDS. The estimated mean (median) waiting times in each stage of infection are stage 1, 2.2 (1.5) months; stage 2, 52.6 (36.5) months; stage 3, 62.9 (43.6) months; and stage 4, 23.6 (16.3) months. We estimate the mean AIDS incubation period (from infection to development of clinical AIDS) as 9.8 years with a 95 percent confidence interval of [8.4, 11.2] years. The paper also considers the estimated density function of the AIDS incubation period and the estimated survival functions for individuals in each stage of infection. This work represents one of the most complete statistical descriptions to date of the natural history of HIV infection.