A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns
A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns
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DOI：
10.1002/2013jd020062
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发表时间：
2013-12-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Kodera, Kunihiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray, Lesley J.;Scaife, Adam A.;Kodera, Kunihiko
通过分析1870-2010年期间的长期平均海平面气压和海表温度观测，研究了11年太阳周期变化的表面响应。分析显示，欧洲和北大西洋上空的太阳信号在统计上有11年的显著性，但数据滞后了几年。延迟的信号类似于太阳活动极大期后北大西洋涛动（NAO）的正相位。相应的海表温度响应与此一致。对哈德利中心模式的海气耦合版本的长期气候模拟进行了类似的分析，该模式具有扩展的上盖，以便很好地解决太阳变化通过平流层的影响。该模型再现了积极的NAO信号在大西洋/欧洲部门，但表面响应的滞后没有很好地再现。所观察到的反应的滞后性质的可能机制进行了讨论。
The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long‐term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long‐term climate simulations from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.