Integrated data could augment resilience
Integrated data could augment resilience
复制标题
集成数据可以增强弹性
DOI：
10.1126/science.aaw2236
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
AghaKouchak, Amir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sills, Jennifer;Vahedifard, Farshid;Ermagun, Alireza;Mortezaei, Kimia;AghaKouchak, Amir
2018年11月的大火创下了加州历史上最致命、最具破坏性的野火的记录(1)。到大火得到控制时，它已经烧毁了153,336英亩土地，摧毁了18,804座建筑，大约52,000人流离失所，85人死亡(1，2)。保险损失估计在75亿至100亿美元之间(3)。破坏和损失可能会增加，因为存在潜在的连锁危险，如有毒火山灰、糟糕的空气质量以及泥石流和泥石流(4)。在过去的几年里，加州经历了野火活动的增加(5)，而且这一趋势预计将继续下去(6)。展望未来，科学家必须帮助决策者和急救人员防止像野营大火这样的极端危险演变成大规模的人类灾难。缺乏在决策者之间传播信息并将其传递给居民的综合框架，加剧了野火的破坏性影响。报告一致指出，在野火之前和期间向居民传播关键信息方面存在缺陷(7)。在蜂窝和电信基础设施受损的地区，数据危机进一步加剧，限制了互联网接入(8)。投资于用于识别、利用、合成和传达相关数据的集成数据系统，将使决策者和社区能够更好地预测、准备、响应和恢复营火等极端事件。我们必须识别相关利益相关者，检查所需数据，高效收集公共和相关私人数据，并开发处理数据集的平台，如天气数据、作为人的代理的手机GPS数据、社交媒体订阅以及交通摄像头和传感器。然后，我们需要一些策略，通过将人工智能技术用于决策支持系统，将数据集转换为有用的信息。为了有效地传达由此产生的信息，我们需要一个可靠的数据基础设施进行实时分析，可以通过电子邮件、电话消息、文本警告、电视、广播和“反向911”(9)向居民发出警报。加州的野火只是新出现的复合自然灾害的一个例子。通过增强现有的弹性平台，我们可以减轻破坏
The massive November 2018 Camp Fire set the record for the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California’s history (1). By the time the blaze was contained, it had scorched 153,336 acres, destroyed 18,804 structures, displaced approximately 52,000 people, and killed 85 people (1, 2). Insured losses are estimated to be between $7.5 and $10 billion (3). The damages and losses will likely increase, as there is a risk of potential cascading hazards, such as toxic ash, poor air quality, and mudslides and debris flow (4). California has experienced an increase in wildfire activity over the past few years (5), and the trend is projected to continue (6). Going forward, scientists must help decision-makers and first responders prevent extreme hazards like the Camp Fire from turning into massive human disasters. Lack of an integrated framework for circulating information among decision-makers and passing it to residents exacerbated the devastating impact of the wildfire. Reports unanimously point to shortcomings in disseminating critical information to residents before and during the wildfire (7). The data crisis further increased in areas where cellular and telecommunication infrastructure was damaged, limiting internet access (8). Investment in an integrated data system for identifying, harnessing, synthesizing, and communicating pertinent data will enable decision-makers and communities to better anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events such as the Camp Fire. We must identify relevant stakeholders, examine the required data, collect public and relevant private data efficiently, and develop platforms for processing datasets such as weather data, cell phone GPS data as proxy for people, social media feeds, and traffic cameras and sensors. We then need strategies to convert datasets into usable information by using artificial intelligence technologies for decision-support systems. To communicate the resulting information effectively, we need a reliable data infrastructure for real-time analysis that could alert residents by email, phone messages, text warning, television, radio, and “reverse 911”(9). California’s wildfires are just one example of emerging compound natural hazards. By augmenting existing resiliency platforms, we can mitigate the destruction