MEASURING ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM OUTER SPACE.
MEASURING ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM OUTER SPACE.
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.102.2.994
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发表时间：
2012-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Weil DN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Henderson JV;Storeygard A;Weil DN
国内生产总值增长对国家的衡量往往很差，对城市或国家以下区域的衡量则很少。我们提出了一个现成的代理：夜间灯光的卫星数据。我们开发了一个统计框架，使用灯的增长，以增加现有的收入增长措施，假设测量误差使用观察到的光作为收入指标是不相关的测量误差在国民收入账户。对于国民收入账户数据良好的国家，关于照明增长的信息在估计收入的实际增长率方面价值不大，而对于国民收入账户数据最差的国家，实际收入增长的最佳估计数是权重大致相等的综合数据。在数据不足的国家中，我们对平均年增长率的新估计与官方数据相差多达3个百分点。Lights数据还可以衡量次国家和超国家区域的收入增长。作为应用，我们研究了撒哈拉以南非洲地区过去17年的增长情况。我们发现，非沿海地区的真实的收入增长速度比沿海地区快1/3个百分点;非疟疾地区的增长速度比疟疾地区快1/3到2/3个百分点;而主要城市地区的增长速度并不比内陆地区快。此类应用指向了一个研究计划，其中“经验增长”不再需要与“国民收入账户”同义。
GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income accounts data, information on growth of lights is of marginal value in estimating the true growth rate of income, while for countries with the worst national income accounts, the optimal estimate of true income growth is a composite with roughly equal weights. Among poor-data countries, our new estimate of average annual growth differs by as much as 3 percentage points from official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we examine growth in Sub Saharan African regions over the last 17 years. We find that real incomes in non-coastal areas have grown faster by 1/3 of an annual percentage point than coastal areas; non-malarial areas have grown faster than malarial ones by 1/3 to 2/3 annual percent points; and primate city regions have grown no faster than hinterland areas. Such applications point toward a research program in which “empirical growth” need no longer be synonymous with “national income accounts.”
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