Multi-sector multi-region economic growth model of drought and the value of water: A case study in Pakistan
Multi-sector multi-region economic growth model of drought and the value of water: A case study in Pakistan
复制标题
干旱的多部门多区域经济增长模型与水的价值：以巴基斯坦为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101368
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
and M. J. M. Cheema
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yokomatsu;M;H. Ishiwata;Y. Sawada;Y. Suzuki;T. Koike;A. Naseer;and M. J. M. Cheema
本研究整合生态水文植被与多部门多区域经济成长模式，以评估干旱对市场的影响，并评估水的经济价值。农业生产函数的几个参数的值确定应用叶面积指数，模拟的生态水文模型，AgriCLVDAS。建立了包含可灌溉农田和可灌溉农田的农业生产函数、降水量和河流水量随机过程的三部门三区域封闭经济模型，分析了干旱胁迫下巴基斯坦的水租和GDP增长。根据封闭经济模型的特点，在干旱时期，由于水的价格上涨，农作物价格上涨（即，水的边际生产力增加，是巴基斯坦高水期的两倍）。本研究进一步提出了一种应用比较动力学研究水资源管理政策的方法。
This study integrates ecohydrological vegetation and multi-sector multi-region economic growth models to evaluate the impacts of drought on markets and value the economic value of water. The values of several parameters of the agricultural production function are identified by applying leaf area indices that are simulated by the ecohydrological model, AgriCLVDAS. The three-sector three-region closed-economy model with the agricultural production functions of both irrigable and rainfed farmland as well as the stochastic process of precipitation and availability of river water are formulated to analyze the water rent as well as GDP growth in Pakistan under drought stress. According to the characteristics of the closed-economy model, the crop price is increased during drought periods because of the price hike in water (i.e., an increase in the marginal productivity of water, which is double that in high-water periods in Pakistan). The study further presents a way of investigating water resource management policies by applying comparative dynamics.