Polarization, fractionalization and conflict
Polarization, fractionalization and conflict
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/0022343307087175
复制
发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Ray, Debraj
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Esteban, Joan;Ray, Debraj
本文提供了一个区分冲突发生及其严重程度的理论框架，并阐明了两极分化和分割化在每种情况下的作用。分析有助于对各种定义进行排序，并为冲突与两极分化或分化之间关系的经验观察提供解释。冲突中玩家的行为被描述为一场博弈，并计算出a玩家的均衡收益。现状的特点是一系列政治制度，这些制度引导不同的对立利益，并将其转化为集体决策，并带来第二套回报。每当后者的回报被前者所支配时，群体就会反抗现状的政治制度。当社会高度两极化时，叛乱的潜在成本非常高，而这种成本可能成为和平的保证。因此，在高度两极化的社会中，公开冲突的发生应该是罕见的，但无论何时发生，其强度都非常严重。另一方面，高度分化的社会容易发生冲突，但其强度将是温和的。因此，研究冲突的强度，以冲突爆发为条件，还是研究冲突实际发生的可能性，都很重要。具体而言，研究表明：(1)分置化和两极分化的度量倾向于相反的方向，(2)冲突的发生严重依赖于现有的政治制度，(3)冲突的发生和冲突的强度也倾向于相反的方向，(4)两极分化或分置化与冲突之间的关系是非单调的，(5)冲突的强度正依赖于两极分化的程度。
This article provides a theoretical framework that distinguishes between the occurrence of conflict and its severity, and clarifies the role of polarization and fractionalization in each of these cases. The analysis helps in ordering the various definitions, and in providing explanations for the empirical observations on the relationship between conflict, on the one hand, and polarization or fractionalization, on the other. The behaviour of players in conflict is described as a game, and equilibrium payoffs to A players are computed. The status quo is characterized by a set of political institutions that channel the different opposing interests and turn them into a collective decision, with a second set of payoffs. Groups rebel against the status quo political institution whenever the latter set of payoffs is dominated by the former. When society is highly polarized, the potential cost of rebellion is extremely high, and this cost may serve as the guarantor of peace. So, in highly polarized societies, the occurrence of open conflict should be rare but its intensity very severe, whenever it happens. On the other hand, highly fractionalized societies are prone to the occurrence of conflict, but its intensity will be moderate. It matters, therefore, whether one studies the intensity of conflict, conditional on conflict breaking out, or the likelihood that conflict actually occurs. Specifically, it is shown that: (i) measures of fractionalization and polarization tend to run in opposite directions, (ii) the onset of conflict critically depends on the political system in place, (iii) the occurrence of conflict and the intensity of conflict also tend to move in opposite directions, (iv) the relationship between polarization or fractionalization and conflict is non-monotonic and (v) the intensity of conflict depends positively on the degree of polarization.