Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate
Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate
复制标题
生态和气候相互作用的临界要素中级联动力学的出现
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
J. Donges
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Klose;Volker Karle;R. Winkelmann;J. Donges
在生态学、气候和其他领域，已经确定了（子）系统，当驾驶过程中的临界阈值或临界点被越过时，这些系统可以过渡到性质不同的状态。鉴于人类对地球生物物理系统的影响越来越大，了解这些引爆因素具有重大意义。倾翻要素之间存在复杂的相互作用，例如，物理机制连接气候系统的子系统。基于对这种耦合非线性系统的早期工作，我们系统地评估了相互作用的倾翻元件的定性长期行为。我们开发了一个相互作用的后果的理解，允许在某些条件下出现的倾斜级联的倾斜行为。这些定性结果的（叙述）应用到现实世界的相互作用的倾翻元素的例子表明，倾翻级联具有深远的影响可能会发生：相互作用的格陵兰冰盖和温盐海洋环流可能会提示之前的孤立子系统的临界点被越过。湖链中第一个湖泊的富营养化可能会通过以下湖泊传播，而不会超过其各自的临界营养输入水平。新兴的级联倾翻动力学的可能性要求发展一个统一的理论相互作用的倾翻要素和相互作用的现实世界的倾翻要素的定量分析。
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.
使用 SeaRISE 冰盖模型的响应函数预测南极冰流量
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Levermann A
通讯作者：
Levermann A