Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements
Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements
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DOI：
10.1029/2023sw003427
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发表时间：
2023-05
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Hysell;A. Kirchman;B. Harding;R. Heelis;S. England
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作者：
D. Hysell;A. Kirchman;B. Harding;R. Heelis;S. England
电离层连接探索者卫星 (ICON) 的测量结果构成了日落后赤道 F 区电离层等离子体对流不稳定性直接数值预报模拟的基础。选择 ICON 数据并用于初始化和强制模拟，然后在卫星重新访问同一经度时测试一个轨道后的结果。来自 IVM 等离子体密度和漂移仪器以及 MIGHTI 红线热层风仪器的数据用于强制模拟。来自 IVM 的数据还用于测试不规则性（电极化等离子体损耗）。检查了 2022 年 3 月下旬的 14 个数据集。模拟正确预测了异常情况的发生或不发生 12 次，同时产生了 1 次假阳性和 1 次假阴性。这表明 ICON 状态变量中存在重要的不稳定迹象，并且仿真代码捕获了不规则性形成的重要机制。讨论了预测策略的可能改进。
Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed.