A spatio-temporal analysis of forest loss related to cocaine trafficking in Central America
A spatio-temporal analysis of forest loss related to cocaine trafficking in Central America
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中美洲与可卡因贩运相关的森林损失时空分析
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aa6fff
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Luis Rey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Sesnie;B. Tellman;D. Wrathall;K. McSweeney;Erik Nielsen;Karina Benessaiah;O. Wang;Luis Rey
越来越多的证据表明，与贩毒网络有关的犯罪活动日益成为中美洲森林损失的重要驱动因素。然而，目前尚不清楚毒品贩运在多大程度上造成森林损失。我们利用基于全球森林变化数据的15个时空森林损失斑块指标的无监督空间聚类来估计毒品贩运可能导致森林损失的程度。我们将每个国家的反常森林损失从背景损失斑块中区分出来，这些斑块显示出潜在的“毒品资本化”特征，这些特征在森林损失的规模、时间和速度方面与其他斑块有统计学上的显著差异。我们还在国家和部门一级比较了每年反常的森林损失与可卡因运输量以及查获、丢失或交付的可卡因数量。对于洪都拉斯，线性混合效应模型的结果显示，异常森林损失与毒品贩运增加的时间之间存在高度显著的关系（F = 9.90, p = 0.009），这也与背景森林损失的时间模式显著不同（t比= 2.98,p = 0.004）。中美洲其他森林损失严重的地区的结果好坏参半。贩运增加的时间与危地马拉和尼加拉瓜的反常森林损失没有显著关系，但与背景损失相比，斑块大小有显著差异。我们估计，在过去十年中，可卡因贩运可能占这三个国家每年国家森林损失的15%至30%，其中30%至60%的损失发生在国家和国际指定的保护区内。可卡因贩运在维持中美洲潮湿的热带森林覆盖方面可能产生严重和持久的后果。要解决这些地区和其他热带地区的森林损失问题，就需要加强国家和国际禁毒和保护政策之间的联系。
A growing body of evidence suggests that criminal activities associated with drug trafficking networks are a progressively important driver of forest loss in Central America. However, the scale at which drug trafficking represents a driver of forest loss is not presently known. We estimated the degree to which narcotics trafficking may contribute to forest loss using an unsupervised spatial clustering of 15 spatial and temporal forest loss patch metrics developed from global forest change data. We distinguished anomalous forest loss from background loss patches for each country exhibiting potential ‘narco-capitalized’ signatures which showed a statistically significant dissimilarity from other patches in terms of size, timing, and rate of forest loss. We also compared annual anomalous forest loss with the number of cocaine shipments and volume of cocaine seized, lost, or delivered at country- and department-level. For Honduras, results from linear mixed effects models showed a highly significant relationship between anomalous forest loss and the timing of increased drug trafficking (F = 9.90, p = 0.009) that also differed significantly from temporal patterns of background forest loss (t-ratio = 2.98, p = 0.004). Other locations of high forest loss in Central America showed mixed results. The timing of increased trafficking was not significantly related to anomalous forest loss in Guatemala and Nicaragua, but significantly differed in patch size compared to background losses. We estimated that cocaine trafficking could account for between 15% and 30% of annual national forest loss in these three countries over the past decade, and 30% to 60% of loss occurred within nationally and internationally designated protected areas. Cocaine trafficking is likely to have severe and lasting consequences in terms of maintaining moist tropical forest cover in Central America. Addressing forest loss in these and other tropical locations will require a stronger linkage between national and international drug interdiction and conservation policies.