A Real-Time Estimation of the Accuracy of Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Using Radar
A Real-Time Estimation of the Accuracy of Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Using Radar
复制标题
利用雷达实时估计短期降雨预报的准确性
DOI：
10.1007/978-94-011-1072-3_26
复制
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Nakakita
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Takasao;M. Shiiba;E. Nakakita
本文将作者提出的短时降水预报方法推广为随机预报方法，使之能实时提供雷达资料预报面雨量的准确性。在研究基本预测模型参数随机性的基础上进行了扩展。首先，我们提出的分析预测精度的特点有关的降雨分布的运动模式的理论分析结果。接下来，我们提出了一个案例研究，使用雷达观测到的实际降雨分布在日本台风。结果表明，用本文提出的方法预报面雨量，其预报均方误差至少可提前1小时。
The short-tenn rainfall prediction method proposed by the authors is extended to a stochastic method so that the method could provide in real-time the accuracy of the areal rainfall predicted using radar infonnation. The extension was carried out based on the investigation on the stochastic properties of model parameters of the basic prediction model. First, we present results of theoretical analyses on the features of analytically predicted accuracy relating to the patterns of the movement of rainfall distribution. Next, we present a case study using actual rainfall distribution observed by radar during a Japanese typhoon. The results show that we can predict the mean square error of predicted areal rainfall at least within 1 hour ahead by the method proposed here.