Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models
Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models
复制标题
将参数、软件和硬件变化与 57,000 个气候模型的大规模行为关联起来
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
M. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chris G. Knight;Sylvia Knight;N. Massey;T. Aina;C. Christensen;D. Frame;J. Kettleborough;Andrew Martin;S. Pascoe;B. Sanderson;D. Stainforth;M. Allen
在复杂的空间模型中，用于预测气候对温室气体排放的响应，合理范围内的参数变化对模型的行为有重大影响。在这里，我们提出了一个前所未有的大集合，超过57，000个气候模型运行，其中10个参数，初始条件，硬件和软件都用于运行模型。我们将有关模型运行的信息与大尺度模型行为（全球平均温度对二氧化碳加倍的平衡敏感性）联系起来。我们证明了参数，硬件和软件变化的影响是可检测的，复杂的，和相互作用的。然而，我们发现大多数的参数变化的影响是由一个小的参数子集。值得注意的是，云的夹带系数与气候敏感性变化的30%有关，尽管低值和高值都可以产生高气候敏感性。我们证明，硬件和软件的影响是小的相对于参数变化的影响，在广泛的系统测试，可以被视为等同于在初始条件的变化所造成的。我们讨论的意义，这些结果的设计和解释的气候模拟实验和大规模模拟更普遍。
In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally.