Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919-45.
Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919-45.
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淋病和结核病传播引起的人口下降：日本占领期间的密克罗尼西亚，1919-45 年。
DOI：
10.1007/s12546-011-9057-2
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Singer,BurtonH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cassels,Susan;Singer,BurtonH
密克罗尼西亚的雅普岛在1919年至1945年日本占领期间经历了一段人口严重减少的时期。使用历史文献中的数据，辅以人种学证据，我们校准了一个解释这一现象的模拟模型。我们的模型跟踪了YAP中一组合成的女性的繁殖史，包括淋病导致的不孕和结核病死亡率的影响，并预测了净繁殖率(NRR)。在这一特殊情况下，纵观整个历史，人类迁徙和相关的社会和文化互动经常伴随着疾病传播模式和重大人口后果的戏剧性变化。尽管在历史和当代文献中广泛强调将死亡率作为人口后果的衡量标准，但在一些重要情况下，出生时预期寿命、生育率和总人口规模是重要的人口后果。我们发现，在日本占领密克罗尼西亚期间，由于反复感染和高不孕风险，淋病可能对人口减少起到了重要作用。我们模型的结果表明，单是淋病就可能使净繁殖率下降82%，而结核病死亡可能导致了17%的下降。
The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline.