Conditional probability of survival in patients with biliary atresia after Kasai portoenterostomy: a Chinese population-based study
Conditional probability of survival in patients with biliary atresia after Kasai portoenterostomy: a Chinese population-based study
复制标题
Kasai 门肠造口术后胆道闭锁患者的条件生存概率：一项基于中国人群的研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2015.03.062
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Wang, Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiao, Guoliang;Li, Long;Wang, Chen
通常报告患者预后的生存估计。条件概率对于胆道闭锁患者来说是缺乏的，条件概率对于患者存活一段时间后的预后提供了更多的相关信息。本研究的目的是计算Kasai门肠造口术后胆道闭锁患者的条件生存概率。我们回顾了244例连续接受Kasai门肠造口术患者的临床资料，并估计了精算生存率。计算条件生存概率和95% ci。在244例患者中，总体中位NLS为41.2个月（95% CI: 30.8-51.6个月），1年、3年和5年NLS率分别为85.4%、61.1%和43.3%。生存率为1、2、3、4年时，患者在5年时间点存活的概率分别为50%、56%、73%、93%。对于有条件生存1年的患者，年龄为bbbb90天且胆管炎的患者具有显著的预测价值(P均为90天（HR: 2.519， P=0.001），术后胆管炎（HR:2.568， P=0.001）
Survival estimates are commonly reported for the outcomes of patients. Conditional probability, which offers more relevant information regarding the prognosis for patients once they have survived for some time, are lacking for patients with biliary atresia. The aim of this study is to calculate the conditional probability of survival in patients with biliary atresia after Kasai portoenterostomy. Clinical data from 244 consecutive patients who underwent Kasai portoenterostomy were reviewed and the actuarial survival estimated. Conditional survival probabilities and 95% CIs were calculated. Of the 244 patients, the overall median NLS was 41.2 months (95% CI: 30.8-51.6months), and the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year NLS rates were 85.4%, 61.1%, and 43.3%, respectively. The probabilities of surviving at the time point of 5 years given survival to 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 50%, 56%, 73%, and 93%, respectively. For conditional survival for 1 additional year, patients with age >90 days and cholangitis had significantly predictive values(both P 90 days(HR: 2.519, P=0.001), and postoperative cholangitis(HR:2.568, P