Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks
Resolving Indeterminacy in Dynamic Settings: The Role of Shocks
复制标题
解决动态设置中的不确定性：冲击的作用
DOI：
10.1162/003355300554746
复制
发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Ady Pauzner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Frankel;Ady Pauzner
本文表明，多重均衡现象对于总冲击的引入可能是脆弱的。我们考察了一个具有外部收益递增的部门选择的标准动态模型。如果没有冲击，结果是不确定的：存在多个理性预期均衡。然后，我们以遵循布朗运动的参数的形式引入冲击，并影响这两个部门的相对生产率。我们假设参数可以达到在任何一个部门工作成为主导选择的值。一个唯一的均衡出现了；对于随机参数的任何路径，经济都有一条唯一的路径必须遵循。多重自我实现的预言或太阳黑子是没有作用的。
This paper shows that the phenomenon of multiple equilibria can be fragile to the introduction of aggregate shocks. We examine a standard dynamic model of sectoral choice with external increasing returns. Without shocks, the outcome is indeterminate: there are multiple rational expectations equilibria. We then introduce shocks in the form of a parameter that follows a Brownian motion and affects relative productivity in the two sectors. We assume that the parameter can reach values at which working in either sector becomes a dominant choice. A unique equilibrium emerges; for any path of the random parameter, there is a unique path that the economy must follow. There is no role for multiple, self-fulfilling prophecies or sunspots.