Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures
Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
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发表时间：
2013-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Rahmstorf, Stefan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coumou, Dim;Robinson, Alexander;Rahmstorf, Stefan
在过去的十年里，世界上许多地区都出现了破纪录的热浪。与此同时，这是自19世纪开始进行足够的测量以来，全球最热的一次。在这里，我们展示了，在没有长期变暖的气候下，在全球范围内，当地打破纪录的月度极端温度的数量现在平均比预期高出五倍。这意味着，平均而言，气候变化导致新的月度高温记录的可能性为80%。观测记录的数量存在很大的区域差异。夏季记录与长时间的热浪有关，在一些大陆地区，包括欧洲、非洲、南亚和亚马逊的部分地区，夏季记录增加了十倍以上。总体而言，这些高记录数字在数量上与观测到的气候变暖趋势加上平稳白噪声的预期一致。此外，我们发现观测到的记录在空间上和时间上都是聚集的。强劲的厄尔尼诺年份在预期的长期上升上叠加了额外的记录。在中等全球变暖的情况下，我们预测到本世纪40年代，全球每月高温记录的数量将是没有长期变暖的气候的12倍以上。
The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Nio years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.