Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2 degrees C
Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2 degrees C
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全球升温1.5℃和2℃背景下中国地表平均气温变化及不确定性
DOI：
10.1002/joc.6694
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ling Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fangying Wu;Qinglong You;Ziyin Zhang;Ling Zhang
近几十年来，中国经历了快速变暖，预计在本世纪剩余的时间里，中国将以类似的速度变暖。在RCP4下，比工业化前水平高出5和2摄氏度。5和RCP8。21个耦合模式比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟的5个情景及其多模式集合平均值（MMEM）。与中国地区的观测结果相比，CMIP5模式大多能捕捉到观测到的增温型，而地表平均温度的MMEM偏冷。在全球变暖1。5 (RCP8。5)将分别增加1.82/2.6 C （1.83/2.52 C）、1.8/2.57 C （1.85/2.56 C）、1.99/2.76 C （1.97/2.76 C）、1.43/2.13 C （1.43/2.04 C）和2.11/2.96 C （2.1/2.85 C）。这项研究表明，中国的地表平均温度将超过1。在全球变暖1.5和2 C的情况下，模式不确定性是中国和4个次区域的主要来源，其次是内部变率和情景不确定性。在研究不同全球变暖水平下的变暖变化和模式之前，未来的工作应该改进气候模式的模拟，减少中国的不确定性。
China has experienced rapid warming in recent decades and is projected to warm at similar rates throughout the remainder of this century. In this study, the projected changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China and four subregions (Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and Tibetan Plateau) are investigated under global warming of 1.5 and 2 C above pre-industrial levels under RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios from 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and their multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM). In comparison with the observations over China, the most CMIP5 models can capture the observed warming patterns while the MMEM of surface mean temperature has a cold bias. Under global warming of 1.5/2 C, the MMEM of surface mean temperature over China, Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and Tibetan Plateau under RCP4. 5 (RCP8. 5) will increase by 1.82/2.6 C (1.83/2.52 C), 1.8/2.57 C (1.85/2.56 C), 1.99/2.76 C (1.97/2.76 C), 1.43/2.13 C (1.43/2.04 C), and 2.11/2.96 C (2.1/2.85 C), respectively. This study suggests that surface mean temperature over China will exceed the 1.5 and 2 C target earlier than the global mean, with the earlier regions over the Tibetan Plateau. Under global warming of 1.5 and 2 C, the model uncertainty is the dominant source over China and four subregions, followed by both internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Future work should improve climate model simulations and reduce the uncertainty over China before investigating warming changes and patterns under different global warming levels.