Japan’s Long-Term Care Cost Projections: Comparison with the European Commission Ageing Report
Japan’s Long-Term Care Cost Projections: Comparison with the European Commission Ageing Report
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日本的长期护理成本预测：与欧盟委员会老龄化报告的比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Daizo Kojima
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Seika Akemura;Daizo Kojima
日本的长期护理成本以高于其他社会保障相关成本的速度增长。因此，重要的是要使用各种情景假设来检查对未来长期护理成本的恶化和制约因素。这项研究基于欧盟委员会的老龄化报告(2015)，建立了四种情景--基本情况、高预期寿命、持续残疾和转向正规护理情景--以预测2060年之前日本的长期护理成本，并考察了影响未来长期护理成本的因素。此外，还比较了日本和不同欧盟国家在四个选定情景下的预测结果，以考察日本长期护理成本的特殊特征。预测结果显示，日本2013-2060年期间的长期护理成本在每一种情景下都显著上升，而个人比较显示，高预期寿命和向正规护理情景的转变都比基本情况下的情景更高，而长期成本在恒定残疾情景中下降。此外，对日本和欧盟国家按情景进行的预测结果的比较表明，受老龄化影响较大的日本在高预期寿命情景中的增长幅度更大，在恒定残疾情景中的约束程度更大。
Japan’s long-term care costs are increasing at a higher rate than other social security-related costs. Therefore, it is important to examine the exacerbating and constraining factors on future long-term care costs using various scenario hypotheses. This study establishes four scenarios based on the European Commission’s Ageing Report (2015)―the base case, high life expectancy, constant disability, and shift to formal care scenarios―to project Japan’s long-term care costs until 2060 and also examines the factors affecting future long-term care costs. Moreover, the projection results for Japan and various EU countries for the four selected scenarios are compared in order to examine the particular characteristics of Japan’s long-term care costs. The projection results show that Japan’s long-term care costs for the period 2013-2060 rise significantly in each scenario, while individual comparisons show that both the high life expectancy and shift to formal care scenarios rise further than in the base case scenario, while long-term costs decrease in the constant disability scenario. Furthermore, the comparison of the projection results for Japan and the EU countries by scenario show that Japan, which is significantly affected by aging, has a greater scale of increase in the high life expectancy scenario and a greater scale of constraint in the constant disability scenario.