Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data
Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data
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根据早期数据预测中国 COVID-19 疫情的累计病例数
DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2020172
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Webb, Glenn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Zhihua;Magal, Pierre;Webb, Glenn
我们对中国的 COVID-19 冠状病毒流行进行了建模。我们使用早期报告的病例数据来预测累计报告病例数的最终规模。我们模型的主要特征是限制社会流动的重大公共政策的实施时机、未报告病例的识别和隔离以及无症状感染者的影响。
We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.