Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.
Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2026664118
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发表时间：
2021-07-13
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Schiff SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ssentongo P;Fronterre C;Geronimo A;Greybush SJ;Mbabazi PK;Muvawala J;Nahalamba SB;Omadi PO;Opar BT;Sinnar SA;Wang Y;Whalen AJ;Held L;Jewell C;Muwanguzi AJB;Greatrex H;Norton MM;Diggle PJ;Schiff SJ
我们制定了一项战略，以了解COVID-19疫情在整个非洲大陆的演变。由于在整个非洲获得高质量的流动数据具有挑战性，因此该方法能够区分来自一个国家或其邻国的病例。研究结果进一步表明，检测能力以及社会和卫生政策如何对病例动态作出贡献，并对每个国家的流行病演变情况作出短期预测。该框架提高了对来自非洲大陆的实时复杂COVID-19数据的解释和行动能力。这些发现强调，协调各国具体传播抑制战略的区域努力应成为非洲大陆控制COVID-19大流行的优先事项。2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行在整个非洲是异质的，威胁着数百万人的生命。监测和短期建模预测对于为控制策略决策提供及时信息至关重要。我们制定了一项战略，根据整个非洲大陆一个国家内部或外部的病例，通过社会经济和地缘经济变化以及社会政策和气象历史的滞后影响进行参数化，帮助预测国家一级的病例发生率。我们观察了人类发展指数、遏制政策、检测能力、特定湿度、温度和国家内陆状态对当地国内和外部国家间传播的影响。该模型对病例数的一周预测是由报告数据的质量驱动的。寻求公平的行为和社会干预措施，与协调的针对具体国家的感染抑制战略相平衡，应该是非洲大陆控制COVID-19大流行的优先事项。
We created a strategy for understanding the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the African continent. Because high-quality mobility data are challenging to obtain across Africa, the approach provides the ability to distinguish cases arising from within a country or from its neighbors. The results further show how testing capacity and social and health policy contribute to the dynamics of cases, and generate short-term prediction of the evolution of the pandemic on a country-by-country basis. This framework improves the ability to interpret and act upon real-time complex COVID-19 data from the African continent. These findings emphasize that regional efforts to coordinate country-specific strategies in transmission suppression should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
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通讯作者：
Shimshack, Jay P.
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Ali, Sheikh Taslim;Wang, Lin;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.