Risk-Averse Proactive Seismic Rehabilitation Decision-Making for Water Distribution Systems
Risk-Averse Proactive Seismic Rehabilitation Decision-Making for Water Distribution Systems
复制标题
供水系统的规避风险主动地震恢复决策
DOI：
10.1061/9780784484302.010
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shahandashti, Mohsen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sharveen, Sumaya;Roy, Abhijit;Shahandashti, Mohsen
地震可能对供水网络造成巨大的破坏性影响。公用事业管理人员面临的挑战是在地震和网络不确定性下做出积极的恢复决策。这些公用事业经理人有着不同的风险偏好。然而，现有的给水管网抗震重建决策模型没有考虑决策者对风险的态度，使现有的模型实际上是有限的。本研究的目的是制定一个风险厌恶的随机组合优化模型，以确定关键管道的供水管网的主动地震修复与可控的风险厌恶水平。通过地震后的正常使用指数来量化给水管网的功能性，并通过目标函数来最大化正常使用指数的期望值。风险价值（VaR）限制用于控制风险水平。该方法包括四个步骤：地震修复率计算，综合多物理场建模，蒙特卡罗模拟，风险规避随机组合优化。利用经验脆性曲线计算了地震荷载作用下各管道的修复率。这些曲线是根据管道的位置、不同位置的土壤腐蚀性、管道直径、管道材料和管道接头特性生成的。采用多物理场集成模型对管网水力特性进行了模拟，并对管网的地震易损性进行了评价。进行蒙特卡罗模拟，以考虑供水系统损坏的概率性质。这些损坏表现为个别管道的泄漏和破裂。该模型用于确定的供水系统的地震灾害的敏感性融合了随机配方的组合优化，以最大限度地提高配电系统的可用性指数，同时最大限度地降低风险。通过风险规避模拟退火算法求解给定资源约束下的关键管线检测优化问题。该方法是在一个广泛使用的基准网络上实现的，以检测该水网络的关键管道。风险规避随机组合优化模型的引入，为决策者提供了一个合适的模型，使康复决策在可控的风险规避水平。
Earthquakes could have enormous destructive impacts on water distribution networks. Utility managers are challenged to make proactive rehabilitation decisions under seismic and network uncertainties. These utility managers have different risk appetites. However, existing seismic rehabilitation decision-making models of water distribution networks do not consider decision-makers’ attitudes toward risk making existing models practically limited. The objective of this research is to formulate a risk-averse stochastic combinatorial optimization model to identify the critical pipes of a water distribution network for proactive seismic rehabilitation with controllable risk aversion levels. The functionality of the water distribution system is quantified by the post-earthquake serviceability index, the expected value of which is maximized by the objective function. A value-at-risk (VaR) constraint is used to control risk levels. This methodology includes four steps: seismic repair rate calculations, integrated multi-physics modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and risk-averse stochastic combinatorial optimization. The repair rate of each pipe subjected to seismic loads was calculated using empirical fragility curves. These curves were generated based on the locations of the pipes, soil corrosivity in different locations, pipe diameters, pipe materials, and pipe joint properties. Network’s hydraulic behavior and seismic vulnerability assessment were simulated using an integrated multi-physics model. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to consider the probabilistic nature of damages to the water distribution systems. These damages were represented by leaks as well as breaks in the individual pipes. The model used to ascertain the susceptibility of the water distribution system to earthquake hazard was fused with a stochastic formulation of combinatorial optimization to maximize the serviceability index of the distribution system while minimizing risk. The solution to the optimization problem of detecting the critical pipes for a given resource constraint was obtained through a risk-averse simulated annealing approach. The approach was implemented on a widely used benchmark network to detect the critical pipelines of that water network. The introduction of risk-averse stochastic combinatorial optimization models equips decision makers with a proper model to make rehabilitation decisions at a controllable risk aversion level.
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DOI：
10.1111/mice.12566
发表时间：
2020-05
期刊：
Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
影响因子：
--
作者：
B. Pudasaini;Mohsen Shahandashti
通讯作者：
B. Pudasaini;Mohsen Shahandashti
随机故障下给水管网维护规划优化
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Honggang Wang;Xin Chen
通讯作者：
Xin Chen
使用混合元启发式优化增强水管网的抗震能力
DOI：
10.1061/9780784483190.047
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
ASCE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Pudasaini, B.;Shahandashti, S. M.
通讯作者：
Shahandashti, S. M.
识别遭受各种地震影响的供水系统的关键环节，以支持检查和更新决策
DOI：
10.1061/9780784480847.029
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
Int. J. Crit. Infrastructure Prot.
影响因子：
--
作者：
B. Pudasaini;S. M. Shahandashti;M. Razavi
通讯作者：
M. Razavi