Cross-municipality migration and spread of tuberculosis in South Africa.
Cross-municipality migration and spread of tuberculosis in South Africa.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-023-29804-5
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发表时间：
2023-02-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Stevens, Wendy S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fofana, Abdou M.;Moultrie, Harry;Scott, Lesley;Jacobson, Karen R.;Shapiro, Anne N.;Dor, Graeme;Crankshaw, Beth;Da Silva, Pedro;Jenkins, Helen E.;Bor, Jacob;Stevens, Wendy S.
人类迁徙促进了传染病的传播。然而，人们对移民对南非结核病传播的贡献知之甚少。我们分析了南非国家卫生实验室(NHLS)在2011年1月至2017年7月记录的所有结核病检测结果的纵向数据，以及2016年南非社区调查估计的市政一级移民流动。我们首先评估了实验室诊断的肺结核患者的迁移模式，并分析了人口统计学预测因素。然后，我们在市级回归模型中量化了跨市移民对结核病发病率的影响。NHLS数据库包括921,888名多次就诊进行结核病检测的患者。在这些人中，147,513人(16%)在不同的城市进行了测试。旅行距离的中位数为304(163至536)公里。移民最常见的年龄在20-39岁之间，男性和女性的比例相似。在市级回归模型中，即使在控制了基线患病率后，移民调整后结核病患病率每增加1%，两年后易药结核病发病率也会增加0.47%(95%可信区间：0.03%至0.90%)。对利福平耐药结核病也发现了类似的结果。考虑到移民因素，我们预测未来结核病发病率的能力有所提高。
Human migration facilitates the spread of infectious disease. However, little is known about the contribution of migration to the spread of tuberculosis in South Africa. We analyzed longitudinal data on all tuberculosis test results recorded by South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), January 2011–July 2017, alongside municipality-level migration flows estimated from the 2016 South African Community Survey. We first assessed migration patterns in people with laboratory-diagnosed tuberculosis and analyzed demographic predictors. We then quantified the impact of cross-municipality migration on tuberculosis incidence in municipality-level regression models. The NHLS database included 921,888 patients with multiple clinic visits with TB tests. Of these, 147,513 (16%) had tests in different municipalities. The median (IQR) distance travelled was 304 (163 to 536) km. Migration was most common at ages 20–39 years and rates were similar for men and women. In municipality-level regression models, each 1% increase in migration-adjusted tuberculosis prevalence was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.03% to 0.90%) increase in the incidence of drug-susceptible tuberculosis two years later, even after controlling for baseline prevalence. Similar results were found for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Accounting for migration improved our ability to predict future incidence of tuberculosis.
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估计患者转学的艾滋病毒护理会计保留率：南非的国家实验室队列研究。
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Fox MP;Bor J;Brennan AT;MacLeod WB;Maskew M;Stevens WS;Carmona S
通讯作者：
Carmona S
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Sun L;Axhausen KW;Lee DH;Cebrian M
通讯作者：
Cebrian M
DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciaa857
发表时间：
2021-11-02
期刊：
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jo Y;Shrestha S;Gomes I;Marks S;Hill A;Asay G;Dowdy D
通讯作者：
Dowdy D
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Moyo, Sizulu;Ismail, Farzana;Van der Walt, Martie;Ismail, Nazir;Mkhondo, Nkateko;Dlamini, Sicelo;Mthiyane, Thuli;Chikovore, Jeremiah;Oladimeji, Olanrewaju;Mametja, David;Maribe, Phaleng;Seocharan, Ishen;Ximiya, Phumlani;Law, Irwin;Tadolini, Marina;Zuma, Khangelani;Manda, Samuel;Sismanidis, Charalambos;Pillay, Yogan;Mvusi, Lindiwe
通讯作者：
Mvusi, Lindiwe
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Hutcheon, Jennifer A.;Chiolero, Arnaud;Hanley, James A.
通讯作者：
Hanley, James A.