Missing Wage Inflation? Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Nonlinear DSGE Model
Missing Wage Inflation? Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Nonlinear DSGE Model
复制标题
缺少工资通胀？
DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103626
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Ichiro Muto and Mototsugu Shintani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iwasaki;Yuto;Ichiro Muto and Mototsugu Shintani
在从全球金融危机中复苏的过程中，大多数发达经济体经历了工资上涨对失业率下降的微弱反应。在本研究中，我们调查了工资向下刚性（DWR）是否是四个发达经济体（日本、欧元区、英国和美国）工资菲利普斯曲线平坦化和工资通胀缺乏的根源。我们估计了一个具有非对称工资调整成本和自然失业率的非线性新凯恩斯模型。在日本、欧元区和英国，工资调整成本是高度不对称的，但在美国则不然。在这三个经济体中，工资通胀和失业差距之间的L形工资菲利普斯曲线明显出现。我们的政策模拟表明，工资通胀的消失并不是一个永久性的现象，随着劳动力市场的进一步改善，工资通胀可能会再次出现。我们的分析表明，将DWR纳入模型的有用性，以了解失踪的工资通胀的背景，并获得货币政策的影响。
During the recovery from the global financial crisis, most advanced economies have experienced a surprisingly weak response of wage inflation to the decline in unemployment. In this study, we investigate whether downward wage rigidity (DWR) is the source of the flattening wage Phillips curve and the lack of wage inflation in the four advanced economies: Japan, the euro area, the UK and the US. We estimate a nonlinear New Keynesian model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs and the natural rate of unemployment. Wage adjustment costs are found to be highly asymmetric in Japan, the euro area and the UK, but not in the US. The L-shaped wage Phillips curves between wage inflation and the unemployment gap clearly emerge in these three economies. Our policy simulations present a possibility that the missing wage inflation is not a permanent phenomenon and wage inflation is likely to reappear with further improvement in the labor market. Our analysis shows the usefulness of incorporating DWR into models for understanding the background of missing wage inflation and obtaining monetary policy implications.