Job and residential location changes responding to floods and cyclones: an analysis based on a cross-nested logit model
Job and residential location changes responding to floods and cyclones: an analysis based on a cross-nested logit model
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洪水和飓风响应的工作和居住地点变化：基于交叉嵌套 Logit 模型的分析
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1740-z
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发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
A. B. M. Sertajur Rahman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qing-Chang Lu;Junyi Zhang;Lingling Wu;A. B. M. Sertajur Rahman
随着气候变化的影响越来越大，孟加拉国许多人被迫搬家和/或换工作。不幸的是，人们如何共同决定他们的工作和居住地点的变化与气候变化灾害的影响知之甚少。本文的主要目的是通过比较社会经济和经验因素，研究沿海和内陆地区的居民如何在洪水和飓风的潜在影响的不同情景下改变他们的工作和/或居住地点。在孟加拉国的14个沿海和内陆地区进行了一项公开的偏好调查。结果，788名受访者提供了3152个有效样本（1948个来自沿海地区，1204个来自内陆地区）。基于交叉嵌套logit模型的分析结果表明，洪水对内陆地区居民的选择没有明显影响，洪水和气旋对沿海地区居民的选择影响有限，气旋强度除外。收入对沿海居民的决策并不重要，但对内陆居民却很重要。在灾难发生时，内陆人民更有可能依赖政府的帮助。然而，沿海人民的决定是由不同因素以复杂的方式驱动的。内陆居民更倾向于更换工作而不是更换居住地点，但沿海居民在应对洪水时决定更换居住地点的积极性略高。揭示了洪水和气旋条件下选择行为的结构差异。最后，讨论了政策含义。
With the increasing impacts of climate change, many people in Bangladesh are being forced to move their homes and/or change their jobs. Unfortunately, little is known about how people jointly decide on their jobs and residential location changes in association with the influence of climate change disasters. The main purpose of this paper is to examine how residents in coastal and inland areas may change their jobs and/or residential location under different scenarios of potential impacts of floods and cyclones by comparing socioeconomic and experiential factors. A stated preference survey was conducted in 14 coastal and inland areas of Bangladesh. As a result, 788 respondents provided 3152 valid samples (1948 from coastal areas and 1204 from inland areas). Analysis results based on a cross-nested logit model indicate that flood has no obvious impact on choices of inland people, and flood and cyclone have limited effects on people’s choices in coastal areas, except for cyclone intensity. Income is not significant in the decisions of the coastal people, but it does matter to the inland people. The inland people are more likely to depend on government help during disasters. However, the coastal people’s decisions are driven by different factors in a complicated way. The inland people prefer changing their jobs to changing their residential locations, but the coastal people are slightly more aggressive in deciding to change their residential location in response to flood. Structural differences of choice behaviors under flood and cyclone are also revealed. Finally, policy implications are discussed.
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DOI：
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影响因子：
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