Bayesian reliability analysis of complex repairable systems
Bayesian reliability analysis of complex repairable systems
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DOI：
10.1002/asmb.522
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发表时间：
2004-07
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
A. Pievatolo;F. Ruggeri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Pievatolo;F. Ruggeri
从一个关于天然气管网的咨询项目出发，提出了一个新的贝叶斯模型来描述一个复杂的、随时间扩展的可修复系统中的故障，该系统被拆分成不同年份安装的组件。可交换泊松过程和独立泊松过程都被用来模拟部件，这些过程在空间上是均匀的，但在时间上不是。该模型还考虑了由于未记录的早期故障或故障部件的安装日期未知而丢失的数据。天然气管网的实际逃逸数据说明了该模型的实现，该模型依赖于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法的使用。版权所有©2004 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
Stemming from a consulting project about a gas distribution network, a new, Bayesian model is proposed to describe failures in a complex, expanding over time, repairable system, which is split into components installed over different years. Both exchangeable and independent Poisson processes, homogeneous in space but not in time, are used to model the components. The model takes also into account missing data, due either to unrecorded early failures or unknown installation dates of failed parts. Actual escape data from a gas distribution network illustrate the implementation of the model, which relies on the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.